Australia plunges into per capita recession

Advertisement

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released national accounts data for the June quarter, with the economy growing by 0.4% in aggregate terms, but shrinking by 0.3% for the second consecutive quarter in per capita terms:

GDP summary

Per capita GDP also declined by 0.3% over the 2022-23 financial year.

At the aggregate level, investment contributed 0.5 percentage point to growth, led by 8.2% increase in public investment. Private investment increased by 0.6%.

Advertisement

Consumption contributed 0.1 percentage point to GDP. Household consumption growth (+0.1%) slowed slightly but remained positive. Government spending increased by 0.4%.

Net trade added 0.8 percentage points, with higher exports (+4.3%) partially offset by lower import growth (+0.7%).

Inventory changes were the most significant drag on GDP growth, subtracting 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth.

Advertisement
Contributions to GDP growth

It is clear that the main driver of Australia’s GDP growth is the Albanese Government’s unprecedented immigration program, which delivered a record net 502,000 visa holders (excluding tourists) into Australia in the year to July, with student visas accounting for 297,000 of these arrivals:

Net visa arrivals
Advertisement

Sadly, the economy is not growing quickly enough to absorb these arrivals, and everyone’s share of the economic pie and living standards are shrinking, alongside the shortage of rental homes and infrastructure.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.