Stalling auction market negative for house prices

Advertisement

CoreLogic has released its final auction results for last weekend, which recorded the lowest national clearance rate since 23 April at 64.9%:

CoreLogic final auction clearance rates

Source: CoreLogic

Melbourne’s final clearance rate fell to 63.7%, down 90 basis points from the prior week’s result of 64.6%.

Sydney’s final clearance rate fell by 1.0 percentage point to 66.7%, also the lowest recorded clearance rate since the week ending 23rd April 2023.

Advertisement

Auction clearance rates have historically been a sound leading indicator for house prices.

Therefore, the decline in final auction clearances suggests that capital city house price growth will fall:

Capital city auction clearances
Advertisement

Sydney’s house price growth has already begun to turn down:

Sydney auction clearances

Whereas Melbourne’s rate of increase in house prices is fading:

Advertisement
Melbourne auctions

This weekend, scheduled auctions across the combined capital cities are down 7.7%, with 1,821 homes set to go under the hammer.

Despite the fall, this weekend’s scheduled auction numbers are still 7.1% higher than the year-to-date weekly average (1,700).

Advertisement

792 homes will be auctioned across Melbourne, a 9.0% decrease from the 870 homes auctioned last week.

Auction activity in Sydney is projected to remain stable, with 748 homes scheduled to go under the hammer, only one less than last week.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
Advertisement