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Michael Hartnett at BofA is back and bearish.
Winners & Losers: tech’s “Magnificent 7” up 93% vs.US regional banks down 37% & China real estate bonds down 55% YTD…losers still losing & “nouveau bulls” hoping no magnificent double-top in Magnificent 7 (Chart4).
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Tale of the Tape: best correlation past 15 years is central bank liquidity (insane surge from $5tn to $25tn) & tech stocks (Nasdaq 2k to 16k); central bank balance sheets down$3tn yet Nasdaq wants new highs (Chart3)…we say tech= H2 trouble rather than era of new AI rules (like “excess savings” for Main St,“excess liquidity” to run out for Wall St).
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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