Treasurer Jim Chalmers will release the 2023 edition of the Intergenerational Report (IGR) on Thursday.
Some of the findings have already been leaked, with Australia’s population projected to swell to 40.5 million by 2062-63 driven by long-term net overseas migration (NOM) of 235,000 a year:
“Australia’s population is projected to reach 40.5 million in 2062–63”, The IGR says according to The Conversation.
“Net migration is assumed at 235,000 a year”.
“The 2023–24 Budget forecast that net overseas migration will recover in the near term due to the temporary catch‑up from the pandemic”.
“It is expected to largely return to normal patterns from 2024-25. Even with the near‑term recovery, on current forecasts, cumulative net overseas migration would not catch up to pre‑pandemic levels until 2029-30”.
Thus, Australia’s population is projected by the 2023 IGR to grow by 14.5 million people (56%) in only 40 years, with most of this population increase going to the major capital cities. How will they cope?
That population increase is the equivalent in adding another Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide to Australia’s existing population, but obviously without the required housing and infrastructure.
It is also worth pointing out that the 2023 IGR has ramped up Australia’s population projections. The 2021 IGR forecast a population of 38.8 million by 2060-61, representing a population increase of 13.1 million over 40 years.
Let’s get real: Australia will never be able to provide enough houses and infrastructure to accommodate the population equivalent of another Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide in just 40 years. We are already suffering chronic shortages of both.
Let alone reach any decarbonisation goals.
Heck, the original 2001 IGR forecast that we wouldn’t hit the current population level until 2050, and we’ve arrived here 27 years early thanks to extreme levels of net overseas migration.
Australia needs to lower immigration to levels commensurate with the nation’s ability to supply homes and infrastructure, as well as within the carrying capacity of the natural environment.
By growing the nation like a science experiment through mass immigration, the federal government will deliver crush-loaded cities, high-rise shoe-box living, a degraded environment, and lower living standards.
Nob0dy voted for a Big Australia of 40 million people. And Australians overwhelming do not support it.
We desperately need a plebiscite on Australia’s future population.
