Dan Andrews delivers broke state, broken hospitals

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Victoria’s population has increased by 2 million people this century (43%), from 4.7 million people to 6.7 million people:

Victorian population growth

The 2023 federal budget projects that Victoria’s population will swell by an unprecedented 694,000 over the five years to 2026-27:

Population by state

Source: 2023 federal budget

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Thus, in only five years, Victoria will gain the equivalent of 1.5 Canberra’s worth of population, taking the state’s population to 7.4 million.

This massive population growth has already crush-loaded everything in sight, from roads and public transport, to schools and hospitals.

It has also plunged the Victorian State Budget deep into debt:

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State budgets

Source: IFM Investors (Alex Joiner)

This is despite the government selling off all manner of public assets to fund infrastructure to keep pace with the state’s rapid population growth.

But this investment never keeps pace and Victorian’s living standards continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate under the never-ending population crush.

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Hospitals are just one example of Victoria’s demise.

Professor Julian Rait, president of the Australian Medical Association Victoria, warned in 2019 that the state was now in a “perfect storm” of inadequate hospital financing and waiting list blowouts, and that hospitals could no longer satisfy community expectations.

“It is a truly ­appalling state of affairs for the sick and vulnerable of Victoria” he said.

“Funding has increased, but not in line with our growth and everyone is struggling with that”:

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Victorian hospital waiting list

A 2022 study by Ambulance Victoria, Monash University, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Alfred Health and the Baker Heart Research Institute found that ambulance ramping was on the rise in Victoria before the pandemic and was associated with dozens of preventable deaths.

33.9% of ambulances in Victoria waited over 40 minutes for access to hospital beds.

On Monday, the Victorian Government released a Safer Care Victoria report, which revealed there had been 240 sentinel events in the state’s health system in 2021-22, up from 168 the previous year, and 42 in 2014-15.

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A “sentinel event” is defined as a “wholly preventable incident ­resulting in serious physical or psychological harm to, or death of, a patient”.

Australian Patients Association CEO David Clarke said the numbers in the report “should concern everybody”.

Despite the breakdown in Victoria’s hospital system, Victorian Premier Dan Andrews told Italian-language newspaper Il Globo last month that he has lobbied Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to lift Australia’s immigration intake even higher:

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“I’ve always been a very strong supporter of more skilled migration”.

“And the new federal government have taken some important steps towards increasing the amount of permanent skilled migration, but I think they might need to do more again”.

“Prime minister Albanese knows this. I’ve spoken to him about it personally and part of it also is clearing the Visa backlog”.

Adding more demand to the hospital system, schools, roads, public transport and housing market is the definition of lunacy.

Victorian living standards have collapsed over the past 20 years, which will worsen under the Albanese Government’s record immigration drive.

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Yet, Premier Dan Andrews wants to double-down with even more immigration to make the shortages in infrastructure, housing and public services even worse.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.