Australia faces diabolical housing shortage

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The 2022-23 financial year delivered an 18% decline in dwelling approvals compared to the prior corresponding period, with approvals tracking near the lows experienced in mid-2020 at the height of the pandemic:

Annual dwelling approvals

Maree Kilroy of Oxford Economics Australia warned that demand and supply for housing are moving in opposite directions, which will result in growing housing shortages over coming years.

“Demand and supply for housing are moving in opposite directions. This will sustain a sizeable dwelling deficiency over the coming years”.

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“It’s not until late 2024 that we anticipate market pressure will guide dwelling approvals back to growth”.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) likewise warned that the “lack of new work entering the pipeline threatens to worsen the affordability crisis”.

“Australia has a structural undersupply of housing, with rental vacancy rates around the country at record lows, driving rents and dwelling prices to new heights”.

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“The return of overseas workers and students, without an equivalent boost to housing supply, will exacerbate the situation”.

“The volume of houses commencing construction [is] expected to reach decade lows in 2024”, the HIA said.

At the same time as actual dwelling construction is falling amid widespread construction company collapses and high materials and financing costs, the Albanese Government has stupidly decided to run the biggest immigration program in this nation’s history.

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As shown in the next chart, Australia’s population is officially projected to swell by 2.18 million people in the five years to 2026-27 – equivalent to five Canberra’s worth of people – driven by record 1.5 million net overseas migration over the same period:

Dwelling completions vs population

Importing record numbers of people at the same time as the housing construction industry is on its knees and infrastructure projects are being cancelled is the height of lunacy.

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The Albanese Government has effectively decided to make housing shortages and rising rents a permanent feature of the Australian economy.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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