As we know, the US is rapidly derisking Chinese supply chains. Europe has been slower off the mark but is moving as well:
To its credit, the German centre-left coalition government has begun a difficult journey of resilience, rapidly weaning the nation off Russian gas and taking a lead in the European debate on how carefully to de-risk – not crudely decouple – economic relations with China.
The German government has recently released a national security strategy and a comprehensive China strategy. Successive Australian governments have judged that they need neither – or at least not as consolidated documents for public consumption.
The German China strategy is polite and constructive about all the transactional benefits of trade and investment with China, while striking a tone of disappointment about the way China has changed the game to make trust impossible.
China is also busily derisking its dependence upon unreliable allies. Most notably, Australia:
…On the surface, China and Australia are gradually repairing ties that were severed when Beijing responded angrily to Canberra’s call for an international investigation into the root of COVID-19. China has dropped duties on imported Australian barley after three years. Australia responded by saying it will suspend its case at the World Trade Organization on the issue.
But the decision to go ahead with the Simandou rail project signals China’s determination to wean itself off reliance on Australia, even as it works with the Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto. Guinea is expected to jump to the world’s third-largest exporter of iron ore, denting Australia’s dominance.
Only Australia is busy going the other way. As I have warned, the Groveller-in-chief will grovel because Labor knows no other way with China:
Anthony Albanese has confirmed he is prepared to visit China without winning any further concessions from Beijing, saying he will argue about unresolved issues directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
No, he won’t. He will kowtow. Alob wants to go to celebrate 50 years of post-Whitlam ALP kowtowing.
And by doing so will invite Chinese coercive control back into the Australian trade profile:
Truly, one of the craziest policy pivots in the history of corrupt politicians.
