Soggy auction market stops house price momentum

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CoreLogic has published its final auction results for last weekend, with the national clearance rate falling to 66.1%, down 0.7% from the previous weekend.

It was the seventh consecutive weekly result below 70%:

Final auction results

Source: CoreLogic

Across Melbourne, the final auction clearance rate decreased by by 4.2%, from 68.8% to 64.6%.

By contrast, Sydney’s final clearance rate rose slightly to 67.7%, which was 0.20% higher than the prior weekend’s result.

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Over the week ended 27 July, CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index rose by 0.19% at the 5-city aggregate level, down from the prior week’s 0.22% rise and momentum slowing:

CoreLogic weekly change

All major capitals experienced value growth, with Adelaide (+0.33%) and Brisbane (+0.29%) leading:

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CoreLogic weekly movements

Quarterly value growth remains strong, with values up 3.5% at the 5-city levels, led by strong growth of 4.5% across Sydney and 4.0% across Brisbane:

Quarterly house price growth
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Values at the 5-city aggregate level have now rebounded by 5.2% from their 7 February low, driven overwhelmingly by rampaging 7.7% growth across Sydney:

Rebound from low

That said, the decline in auction clearance rates is beginning to slow house price momentum.

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As shown in the next chart, quarterly value growth at the 5-city aggregate level has begun to turn down, which follows the fall in auction clearances:

Capital city house prices versus auction clearances

This slowing in momentum has been driven by Sydney, where quarterly value growth is now falling in response to declining auction clearance rates:

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Sydney house prices versus auction clearances

Several banks still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike interest rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

Alongside the unseasonal rebound in new listings, this has the potential to stall the house price rebound.

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At least until the RBA commences its next rate easing cycle.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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