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Thursday’s labour force release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the labour market remains resilient in the face of a softening economy and record immigration.
The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5%, where it has remained since August 2022. Whereas the underemployment rate has edged higher over recent months (chart from CBA):
The RBA minutes released this week specifically noted the lag between cooling economic activity and loosening in the labour market: “Although economic growth was slowing, the continued tight labour market reflected the usual lags from activity to labour market outcomes”.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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