Falling job ads signal higher unemployment

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Via the ANZ.


The series formerly known as ANZ Australian Job Ads has been updated and renamed ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads. Indeed is a leading website for job advertisement listings, and its data have been incorporated in the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series from 2018 onwards. The series has also been converted to an index (2019 average = 100) and the data going back to 1975 will be published at https://media.anz.com/. Please see page 4 for recent changes. ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined by 2.4% m/m in March. In trend terms, the decline over the past six months has accelerated, reaching -1.6% m/m in March. But the Job Ads index is still 53.4% higher than pre-pandemic, signalling excess labour demand persists.

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ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch: ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads has fallen 7.2% from its September 2022 peak but is still more than 50% above its prepandemic level, indicating the volume of unfilled labour demand remains significant. This is consistent with NAB and ACCI data showing the share of firms reporting labour as a major constraint is still at or close to record highs. And ABS data show the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed was still 0.86 in February, almost triple the pre-pandemic level of 0.3. As such, we expect the labour market will remain very tight through 2023, with unemployment staying below 4%.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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