Some good news at last on energy prices. Aussie gas prices have crashed:
And, following along as usual, so have electricity prices:
Futures are falling sharply too but probably represent a more realistic outcome for prices over the long-term:
Leading the way down is international LNG prices which have already shrugged off pre-winter seasonal strength:
Because the US and Europe are glutted with the stuff:
Barring a usually cold northern winter, I expect another leg down in global gas prices over the next year as the glut takes its toll.
This will drag thermal coal down another leg as well.
There is no reason for Australian energy shocks to return barring the cartel gouging again.
So, probably. The bullshit is still flowing:
Rick Wilkinson, CEO of analytics firm EnergyQuest, said with all the exemptions, it’s reasonable to ask how much gas is actually subject to the price cap.
“The answer is not much right now – we estimate it at approximately six per cent of total east coast production (which includes LNG), but a more material 21 per cent of domestic supply,” he said.
Having inserted itself as arbiter of the east coast gas market, the government may be forced to make some difficult decisions in the medium to longer term as artificially low prices do not encourage new supply, Mr Wilkinson said.
He rejects the official view that the war in Ukraine and record international gas prices are the cause of the east coast market disruptions.
“Our analysis shows it is primarily caused by domestic issues and the availability of firm energy supply,” he said.
At least as international prices keep falling, such absolute garbage will be increasingly exposed.
