Albo’s rental apocalypse laid bare

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Two reports were released on Thursday showing how the Albanese Government’s record immigration policy is laying waste to Australian renters.

Australian population change

Australia posted record population growth (immigration) in 2022.

Domain’s quarterly rental review reported that “Australia’s combined capitals are experiencing their longest stretch of continuous rental price growth on record”.

“The colliding mismatch of heightened demand and supply side constraints has continued to place pressure on house and unit asking rents across Australia. This has resulted in records being set in most capital cities”.

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Combined capital city house rents grew by 2.7% over the June quarter, whereas unit rents surged by 5.5%:

Domain quarterly rental growth

House rents surged by 11.5% over the year, with each of the five major capital city markets recording double-digit growth:

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Domain house rents

Unit rents hyper-inflated by 26.1% in the year to June, led my Sydney (27.6%) and Melbourne (22.0%), which are being inundated by international students and migrants:

Domain unit rents
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Domain explicitly warns that extreme immigration at a time of stalling housing supply is driving the rapid rental inflation:

“Key factors contributing to a tight rental market include the quicker-than-expected return of international students, the revival of overseas migration, as well as tenants opting to rent for longer due to financial barriers to home ownership”.

“With net overseas migration estimated to be at a record high over the previous and current financial year, Domain estimates roughly 127,000 additional dwellings will be needed this financial year alone”.

“Further exacerbating this is the unprecedented headwinds faced by the construction industry, which have prompted a slowdown in new builds – and subsequently, new supply”.

CoreLogic’s quarterly rental review was also released on Thursday and shows similar results:

CoreLogic rental snapshot

Source: CoreLogic

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Rents across the combined capital cities surged by 3.0% over the quarter to be up 11.5% year-on-year, led by Perth (13.4%), Sydney (12.9%), and Melbourne (12.6%).

CoreLogic notes that strong immigration is behind the rapid rental growth across Sydney, Melbourne and Perth:

“Recent ABS data showed a strong surge in net overseas migration to NSW and Victoria, with the majority of migrants choosing to settle in Sydney or Melbourne upon arrival”.

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“Similarly, strong net internal migration, coupled with an above average flow of overseas migrants has seen WA record the strongest population growth across the country”.

“Sydney, Melbourne and Perth have also seen total rental supply between -30% and -50% below the previous five-year average for this time of year”.

CoreLogic annual rental growth

Source: CoreLogic

PropTrack’s quarterly rental market report was released earlier this week and reported 17.0% rental growth across the combined capital cities in the year to June:

PropTrack rental snapshot

Source: PropTrack

The May federal budget forecast that Australia’s population would grow by an unprecedented 2.18 million people over the five years to 2026-27, driven by record net overseas migration of 1.5 million.

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This record population growth will occur at the same time as actual dwelling construction is falling because of widespread home builder failures, material cost inflation, and rising financing costs:

Dwelling supply versus population growth

The Albanese Government’s extreme immigration policy is an inequality disaster for Australian renters, many of whom face financial ruin and homelessness.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.