TS Lombard with the note.
- July Politburo: stimulus stance likely to disappoint – market negative
- November “Third Plenum”: industrial policy boost – mild market positive
- January Taiwan election: binary market and geopolitical outcome
China macro and markets are heavily dependent on the domestic political calendar. Party meetings follow a regular annual and multiyear cycle. In the next six months the annual July Politburo meeting and quinquennial Third Plenum of the Central Committee will provide clear direction for short-term stimulus and longer-term industrial policy. We think current stimulus expectations are too high – in terms of both size and efficacy – and will likely disappoint markets.
