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Michael Hartnett at BofA confesses.
Zeitgeist: Me: ”I’m never wrong”. Wife: ”You should explore that. My experience of you is you’re always wrong”.
The Biggest Picture: secular breakout of non-US stocks vs global fixed income (Chart 2) just as US dollar breaks below Mar’20 COVID high (Chart 5); neither risk-off SVB nor debt ceiling allowed US$ to regain bull of ‘21/’22, and renewed bear as Fed says we ain’t done shows Fed credibility on the ropes again; lower US$ bullish “inflation assets,” commodities, international stocks, particularly EM as China/India/Brazil ease policy in H2 (Chart 6).
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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