It will take 14 years for Australian real wages to recover

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The latest wage price index data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that real wages had fallen to 2010 levels in March, down 7.5% from its June 2020 peak:

Real wages

The big question is how long will it take for Australian real wages to recover?

Greg Jericho from the Centre for Future Work and The Guardian produced the below chart showing how long it would take for real wages to recover if they grew at the 2002-11 or 2012-20 rates:

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Real wage growth recovery

According to Jericho, it would take seven years for real wages to recover if wages were to grow at their 2002-11 pace.

It would take 14 years for real wages to recover if wages were to grow at their 2012-20 pace.

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Obviously, with extreme immigration and low productivity growth, we are far more likely to follow the 2012-20 slow growth path (or worse):

Australian wage growth

This means Australians are facing an unprecedented reduction in their living standards that will make the 2010s “lost decade” look like a support act.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.