Fed spoils the Australian dollar party

DXY sagged last night as EUR bounced:

Australian dollar popped and dropped:

Oil and gold yawn:

Base metals are hoping for China stimulus:

Big miners too:

EM stocks having a crack:

Junk yawn:

Treasuries backing up again, curve squashed:

Stocks only go up:

Basically, the Fed delivered a hawkish hold as expected. It also released its quarterly projections which suggest another two rate hikes:

Forex is still rerunning a mini-me version of the China reopening pattern:

• DXY sliding as the Fed slows and global growth is perceived as higher than the US;
• China stimulus helping it and Europe, lifting EUR;
• AUD up with commodities.

I have my doubts:

• The Fed is trying to kick one leg out and the higher markets go the more likely it will kick harder;
• Chinese stimulus is an all-or-nothing proposition given its liquidity traps, and
• Europe is heading for recession.

Beyond this short-term stuff, my base case is still a global recession, lower commodity prices and AUD.