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Michael Hartnett at BofA leads us off.
Tale of the Tape: government spending since Jan’20: US $8.2tn, Eurozone $6.1tn, UK $1.2tn; budget deficits in US (6%), UK (8%) high & rising (Chart 3); 2020s fiscal excess why nominal GDP so strong (Chart 4), unemployment so low, inflation & rates stay high.
The Price is Right: 8 rate hikes in June (BoE & Norges surprise with 50bps); 88 global rate hikes YTD vs 17 cuts (all in EM – Charts 5-6); 470 rate hikes past 2 years vs 1202 rate cuts since Lehman (Chart 7); EM successfully pivoting to cuts in H2’23, DMs pivoting back to hikes.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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