Strong housing market shrugs off RBA rate hike

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Heading into the weekend’s auctions, CoreLogic questioned whether the market would be negatively impacted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) unexpected 0.25% interest rate hike last Tuesday.

Well, the results are in with CoreLogic recording the highest preliminary clearance rate since mid-February 2022, which was more than two months before the RBA began its interest rate tightening cycle.

Preliminary auction clearance rates

CoreLogic auction clearance rates.

Across the combined capital cities, 75.1% of homes that went under the hammer were sold over the weekend, based on preliminary results.

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Last weekend’s preliminary clearance rate was 5.9 percentage points lower at 69.2% (revised to 66.2% at final figures), whereas this time last year, 61.8% of auctions held were successful.

Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate remained above 70% for the fourth week in a row, at 76.0%.

Last week’s preliminary clearance rate (77.7%, downgraded to 71.8% in final numbers) was 1.7 percentage points higher, and the highest since mid-October 2021 (80.1%).

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This time last year, Melbourne hosted 905 auctions with a clearance rate of 59.8%.

Across Sydney, 78.5% of auctions were successful, the highest preliminary clearance rate since mid-February 2022 (79.6%).

The previous weekend’s preliminary clearance rate was 7.8 percentage points lower at 70.7%, which was reduced to 68.0% in final numbers. Only 55.3% of auctions were successful at this time last year.

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AMP Capital’s chief economist, Shane Oliver, reported on Domain’s preliminary auction clearance rates via Twitter (chart below).

Sydney recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 78%, which infers a final clearance rate of around 76%. That’s up from a May norm of around 67%, according to Oliver.

Melbourne recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 76%, which suggests a final clearance rate of about 71%. That’s also up from a May norm of around 67%.

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Domain auction clearance rates

Domain auction clearance rates.

Meanwhile, Australian dwelling values continue to rebound, led by Sydney.

It has now been a full quarter since dwelling values across the five major capital city markets bottomed on 7 February.

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Since then, values at the 5-city aggregate level have rebounded by 1.8%, driven by a 3.4% jump across Sydney:

Australian dwelling values

Based on this weekend’s auction results, the RBA’s latest 0.25% rate hike has had minimal impact on the market.

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A dearth of stock for sale and soaring rents continues to drive a ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) among buyers, which is driving the price rebound.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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