No, Labor’s migration reforms won’t deliver a “smaller Australia”

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The SMH on Thursday published a highly misleading article claiming Labor’s tokenistic migration reforms will deliver a “smaller Australia”:

The Age: Smaller Australia

“A planned increase in the minimum wage threshold for temporary skilled migrants, from $53,900 to $70,000 from July 1, will lead to fewer migrants and ultimately contribute to a shortfall of 620,000 in Australia’s forecast population”, the article reads before producing the below misleading chart:

Disappearing Australians
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The article then contradicts itself with the following statement.

“Chalmers on Tuesday will confirm net overseas migration – which covers the movement of all but short-term tourists in and out of Australia – will hit an all-time high of 400,000 this financial year and 315,000 in 2023-24”.

“The surge is expected to be short-lived, with net migration forecast to fall to 260,000 in 2024-25 and the following year before stepping down further to its long-term trend of 235,000”.

How can we get a “smaller Australia” with two years of record net overseas migration (NOM) followed by migration returning back to its forecast trend of 235,000, which is 15,000 higher than the ‘Big Australia’ NOM experienced in the 15 years before Covid?

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This is pure Orwellian double-speak by The SMH.

The fact remains that the January 2023 Population Statement projected a population of 29.9 million people by 2032-33 off projected NOM of 235,000 this year and next:

Population outcomes

Obviously with NOM coming in much higher, so too will Australia population growth.

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Australia is facing a Bigger Australia, not a Smaller Australia under the Albanese Government.

Stop lying SMH. You are a disgrace.

For a truthful analysis of Labor’s migration reforms, please read Stephen Saunders’ excellent article published on Wednesday.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.