Mad Albo locks in ‘Giant Australia’

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Tuesday’s federal budget massively ramped up Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) projections.

Below is the NOM table from the October 2022 Budget, which forecast 235,000 NOM each year over the four year forward estimates:

October 2022 NOM

And here is the revised NOM forecast from Tuesday’s Budget:

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May 2023 NOM

NOM is now expected to hit a record high 400,000 in 2022-23 before falling to 315,000 in 2023-24. Then it will fall to 260,000, where it will stay over the forward estimates.

Thus, the latest Budget looks to have locked in permanently higher NOM that is 25,000 higher than the 235,000 projection contained in the previous Budget, the 2021 Intergenerational Report, and the 2023 Population Statement.

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For all the gaslighting by Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil that Labor is not delivering a “Big Australia”, the federal budget’s latest forecasts certainly say otherwise.

This projected long-term NOM of 260,000 is 40,000 higher than the ‘Big Australia’ immigration the nation experienced in the 15 years leading up to the pandemic, which averaged around 220,000 a year:

Net overseas migration
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This ramp-up in immigration has been deliberately engineered by the Albanese Government via:

  • Extending the number of hours students can work and their stay in Australia after graduation;
  • Employing 500 people to clear the phony “one million” visa backlog as quickly as possible;
  • Lifting the annual permanent non-humanitarian migrant intake to a record high 195,000 (from 160,000); and
  • Easing entry requirements for Indian students and workers.

In the process, the Albanese government has guaranteed that Australia’s housing crisis will get much worse, environmental degradation will accelerate, the crush-loading of public services will worsen and wage growth will stall.

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Who knew a vote for Labor was a vote for a Giant Australia and forever falling living standards?

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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