Advertisement
TD Securities kicks us off.
•There remains some uncertainty about tax receipts and outlays, but TreasurySecretary Yellen revised the estimate for the debt ceiling X-date to June 1. Given how far apart the two sides are, we expect negotiations to go down to the wire.
•We expect either a short-term deal to coincide with the government funding deadline on September 30 or the debt limit to be extended until after the 2024 election. While the latter option would remove a significant source of uncertainty, it will likely require spending cuts. While not our base case, a default remains the tail risk.
Advertisement
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Advertisement