Energy catastrophe to crash house prices

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This is utter madness:

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell for the third straight week on Friday to the lowest level in nearly two years due to weak demand from top regional importers and as inventories remained high.

The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia LNG-AS, which has fallen nearly two-thirds this year, slumped to $10.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated, a 4.5% fall from the previous week and the lowest level since end-May 2021.

“Price pressure continues to favour the downside. Plenty of cargo availability in Europe with Chinese national oil companies offering volumes, while at the same time, looking to pick up molecules in the east given favourable nominal prices,” said Tobias Davis, head of LNG Asia at brokerage Tullett Prebon.

China takes 71% of east coast gas even though it does not need nor want it. It can’t give it away at $15.50Gj while Australians can’t buy any below $19Gj, which is 60% above mandated Albanese Government price caps:

As a direct result, wholesale electricity prices are soaring and are now roughly 250% above the historical average price range:

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This means power bills will rise another 70% or so over the next quarter or two, wiping out the Budget electricity price subsidies plus twice again.

This will add 3-4% to the CPI and drive the RBA cash rate to 5% as households must be crushed via falling house prices to fit gas cartel inflation within the 2-3% RBA range.

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Meanwhile, at gas cartel propaganda central – the AFR – there is complete silence on the energy shock, only this shite:

The Albanese government’s renewed support for another prices-linked national wage rise for minimum award workers threatens to keep inflation from falling, economists warned amid debate over whether its second budget would pressure the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates high.

Wages? What a joke! Current wages growth will be wiped out by the power shock alone. And there is this:

The head of the oil and gas industry lobby group has called for an urgent resolution of Labor’s proposed regulations on east coast gas pricing to allow stalled investment that would ward off threatened shortages to resume.

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“Threatened shortages”? The gas cartel is squeezing the entire east coast economy right now with a supply boycott that funnels the gas to China to resell to anybody that will take it.

Which is nobody! Hence non-stop price falls in Asia ($15.50Gj), Europe ($15.50Gj) and the US ($3Gj). Not to mention, record tonnages floating in circles at sea:

And not one word of this unfolding economic disaster is mentioned in the weekend press.

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I feel like Cassandra.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.