East Coast capitals drive house price rebound

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Domain chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, says the major east coast capitals – Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – are driving the nation’s house price rebound.

Moreover, it is premium suburbs in these capitals that are now experiencing the fastest growth after falling hardest over the pandemic.

“We’re certainly seeing some areas leading the recovery, like the eastern suburbs, Northern Beaches and city and inner south of Sydney, and Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula and inner-east in Melbourne”, Powell said.

“They hit their troughs earlier with price falls and are now further along in the price cycle than many of the other areas”.

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“So this speaks to the ripple effect of the recovery of the housing market – and those areas where prices have deteriorated the most, and are now bouncing back, provide lots of good opportunities for buyers”.

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows similar results, with these same east coast capitals leading the price rebound:

Australian dwelling values
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Sydney is leading the way, with values up 4.1% from their trough on 7 February.

Melbourne values have risen a more subdued 1.1% from their bottom, whereas Brisbane has rebounded 1.3%.

These three capitals have driven values up by 2.5% from their trough at the 5-city aggregate level.

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With net overseas migration running at all-time high levels, with most of these arrivals landing in these three capitals, and rents soaring at double-digit rates:

Rental growth

Home prices should continue rising even if the Reserve Bank lifts rates one or two more times.

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With interest rates near their peak, there is just too much FOMO (‘Fear of Missing Out’) and too little stock to derail the recovery.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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