Chinese growth slows

Wednesday 17 May 2023

Goldman with the wrap.

Industrial production (IP) growth rose to +5.6% yoy in April from +3.9% in March. On a sequential basis after seasonal adjustments, we estimate IP contracted meaningfully by 6.9% mom non-annualized in April (vs. -0.7% in March), in line with the sub-50 manufacturing PMIs for April. Output of automobiles and general equipment contributed the most to the IP year-on-year growth acceleration in April from March (Exhibit 1).

Among major products, automobile production volume growth surged to +59.8% yoy in April from +11.2% in March, driven mainly by favorable base effects (given Covid lockdowns in automobile production bases including Shanghai and Jilin during the same period of last year).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.