The Albanese Government is hailing the “strongest start for jobs growth for any new Australian government in history”.
Treasury analysis has revealed that 333,000 more Australians were employed in April 2023 than in May 2022, which is more than three times the number of jobs gained in the first year of the Coalition government.
The same Treasury analysis reveals that 60% of jobs recorded a higher wage rise than the year before.
“More Australians in work and earning more are among the really pleasing economic outcomes over the past year”, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
The above sums up everything I hate about economics commentary in this nation: the persistent focus on overall growth without considering per capita outcomes.
We see it all the time with GDP, now we are seeing it with employment statistics.
Who cares that Australia has ‘created’ 333,000 jobs since May 2022 when the civilian population aged over 15 years has ballooned by 467,000 people over the same period due to record net overseas migration?
Labour supply is now growing faster than demand, meaning the ranks of Australia’s unemployed has increased for seven consecutive months:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
Thus, the jobs situation – while still okay in a year-on-year context – is now turning pear shaped.
Strong jobs growth is meaningless if those jobs are now going to recent arrivals, while the number of unemployed is increasing.
It is even worse when real wages are plummeting at the fastest rate in history:
I suspect that in a year from now, the Albanese Government will be signing a very different tune.
Voters won’t remember the first year of government. But they sure will remember the last before an election.
