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Let’s kick off with the excellent Michael Hartnett at BofA.
Zeitgeist: “The best macro trade right now is no macro trade.”
The Biggest Picture: need to go back to early ‘50s to see low 3.4% unemployment rate coexist with low 37% Presidential approval rating (Charts2& 3); inflation sole macro reason for disapproval…maybe not a good idea for Fed to pause when inflation 5%, maybe June risk isn’t debt ceiling but another month of “rate hike” jobs & inflation data.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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