Australian dollar smashed again

Advertisement

DXY stalled:

AUD was smashed on the crosses:

CNY keeps falling. This is a long-term adjustment for mine as China is ex-growth:

Advertisement

Needless to say, this is bad for commodities:

And miners:

Plus EM stocks:

Advertisement

I’m not sure what triggered junk:

Treasury yields eased:

AI inflated and everything else didn’t:

Advertisement

It remains my view that DXY is back and has further to run. I am especially reassured that nobody else thinks so. The market is hilariously long EUR:

As its economy stalls versus the US:

Advertisement

And heads for recession:

Everything points away from Europe and towards the US:

  • X-date resolution
  • AI bubble
  • weak China
  • ECB behind the curve
  • stalling economy
  • Ukraine War.

Falling EUR and CNY is very negative for AUD.

Advertisement
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.