The Shadow RBA says hike 25bps which, given its hapless record, is a good indicator that the real RBA will not:
For the current (April) round, the Shadow Board is less confident about the need for further tightening, compared to previous rounds: it is attaching a 34% probability that pausing the tightening cycle is the appropriate policy. Correspondingly, it is attaching a 66% probability that another rate rise, above the current level of 3.60%, is the appropriate policy stance, with a mode recommendation of a 25 bp increase to 3.85%. The Board completely rules out the possible need to cut the overnight rate.
Cash rate futures are unequivocal:
Bloomberg consensus for a hold is 16-11. The best of, Bill Evans and Gareth Aird, both say hold. Goldman’s stopped clock hawks are calling a hike so that’s another contrary indicator.
It’s obvious that the economy has stalled out and inflation is going to keep falling.
