RBA: Record immigration to drive interest rates higher

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Australia’s population soared by a record high 482,000 last year on the back of record immigration:

Australian population change

Monthly visa arrivals data also shows that immigration will surge higher on the back of record international student arrivals:

Net student visa arrivals
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The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warn that record immigration could lift inflation and result in further interest rate hikes.

“Estimates of population growth had been revised up, owing to stronger net overseas migration”, the minutes note.

“One was the upgrade to near-term projections for population growth. Members noted that this could put significant pressure on Australia’s existing capital stock, especially housing, which would in turn manifest in higher consumer prices”.

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“They observed that there were already signs that the recent fall in housing prices might be smaller and more short-lived than expected”, the minutes say.

“Although higher immigration might reduce wage pressures in industries that had been experiencing significant labour shortages, members noted that the net effect of a sudden surge in population growth could be somewhat inflationary for a period”.

“Rental markets remained very tight and this was continuing to flow through to growth in CPI rents. Residential vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne had seen the largest declines to be below their long-run average levels”.

At a 6% weighting, property rents are one of the largest items in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.

Asking rents nationally are rising at a double-digit rate, which is thereby helping to fuel inflation:

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Rental charts

The Albanese Government’s mass immigration policy is now working against renters, mortgage holders, and the RBA’s efforts to tame inflation.

Labor must reverse track on immigration urgently.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.