Oh the pain trade!

Michael Hartnett at BofA’s monthly fundie survey is out.

Bottom Line: most bearish FMS of ’23 as credit crunch causes double dip in global growth & highest bond allocation since Mar’09; Bull & Bear Indicator @ 2.3 so bear sentiment still contrarian supportive for risk assets…”pain trade” up in bond yields & bank stocks/REITs if consensus lust for recession not immediately satisfied in Q2.

On Macro: net 63% expect weaker global growth (reversing 4 months of improvement) & net 84% say CPI heading lower = 72% predict lower short-term rates, most since Nov’08; Fed starts easing cycle Q1’24 say 35%, Q4’23 say 28%, Q3’23 say 14%.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

Share

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.