Australian dollar to the moon on US recession

After rallying on the oil pop, DXY was crucified last night:

AUD to the moon!

Oil held its gains. Gold added:

Dirt not so much:

Nor miners:

And EM stocks:

It’s a junk party:

As yields threaten breakdown:

Stocks stalled:

The shock result of the night was the ISM:

The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI® is at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 44.3 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 47 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 47.8 percent is a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 47.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.2 percent, down 2.1 percentage points compared to the February figure of 51.3 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 45.1 percent. The Employment Index continued in contraction territory, registering 46.9 percent, down 2.2 percentage points from February’s reading of 49.1 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 44.8 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.2 percent recorded in February; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped into contraction at 47.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of 50.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 47.6 percent is 2.3 percentage points lower than February’s figure of 49.9 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 47.9 percent, 2 percentage points below the 49.9 percent reported in February.

Dour stuff with ongoing destocking pressures as new orders pace inventories downwards.

I still don’t trust the DXY response. This shakeout is coming to Europe next so EUR does not strike me as a safe haven.

Moreover, we still don’t know the degree of credit tightening coming nor have we entered a recession, complete with bad loans feeding back into the banks as well.

Lots of wood to chop here before I am either bearish DXY or bullish AUD.