DXY bounced hard last night. EUR may have formed a double top:
AUD was pulverised then bounced some:
Gold and oil held the gains:
Dirt is falling:
Miners too:
And EM stocks:
Make junk weak again:
US yields broke support:
Stocks are also toying with double tops:
US data is weakening fast. The Services ISM was a shocker:
ADP slowed as well, up by 145,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 6.9 percent year-over-year. That’s a nasty combination.
BofA’s macro metrics are slumping:
The US is heading into a recession and it is becoming obvious. Credit card spending is further confirmed to have been hit by the bank run (which I would not expect) and the KRE is breaking down again:
However, this is all well-telegraphed. What is not is that the Eurozone is fast catching down which matters a lot for FX.
As the ECB is forced to pause as well then the interest rate and growth uplift for EUR will simultaneously disappear.
I still don’t trust the falling DXY but AUD is at least behaving normally by weakening anyway.
