University graduate boom delivers endless skills shortages

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One of the great paradoxes afflicting the economy is how Australia has never had more people completing university degrees, yet ‘skills shortages’ are worse than ever and productivity stinks.

Domestic university enrolments soared 43% between 2008 and 2020, which has oversupplied the economy with graduates holding degrees:

In turn, outstanding HELP debt skyrocketed:

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Outstanding HELP Debt

Meanwhile, funding to Australia’s vocational education and training (VET) sector has been slashed as university funding boomed:

Now Australia is facing chronic skills shortages in jobs requiring a vocational education.

According to a new quarterly Labour Market Update report from Jobs & Skills Australia, seven of the top 10 jobs in demand only require a vocational qualification, including child and disability carers, motor mechanics, and retail managers.

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This comes as 60% of employment growth over the last 12 months has been in jobs that require a vocational qualification, versus only 36% of growth from university-qualified professions.

The data suggests that Australia has too many university graduates chasing too few professional jobs, while there are chronic shortages of vocational trades and technicians.

Hence the never-ending complaints of ‘skills shortages’ by business groups, despite Australia churning out more university graduates than ever.

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The policy focus, therefore, needs to be reversed, starting with lifting entry standards to university for both domestic and international students and expanding places for VET and TAFE.

The policy prioritisation of university over vocational education and trades was always nonsensical.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.