Unemployment to rise as SEEK job ads dive

There’s more evidence of the softening labour market with the number of job ads listed on SEEK falling 1.6% in February to be 12.2% lower year-on-year:

As shown above, job ads have fallen in eight of the past nine months. This level is already pointing toward an unemployment rate in the 4.5% range. Recall that in the context of the permanent immigration supply shock of the last cycle, 5% unemployment was enough to kill wages growth and inflation:

In better news, applications per job ad, which are reported with a one-month lag, decreased for the first time in eight months, falling 1.8% in January.