Hartnett: Stock market “to attempt new lows”

Monday 27 March 2023

The excellent Michael Hartnett at BofA.

The Biggest Picture: the next bubble…money market fund AUM surges above $5.1tn (Chart 2), up >$300bn past 4 weeks; prior 2 surges ’08/’20 coincided with big Fed cuts.

Tale of the Tape: IG bonds & big tech (not small tech) winning on rate cut optimism; yet longest duration asset biotech (XBI – Chart 4) can’t catch a bid; recession/job losses v unlikely to be +ve for credit/tech (Nasdaq dropped >50% in ‘08/’09 recession).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.