Australia’s international student “ponzi scheme” explodes

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In October 2022, Labor’s federal member for Bruce, Julian Hill, claimed that Australia’s international education industry had become a “ponzi scheme” because it was using easy work rights and permanent residency as a carrot for overseas students to come to Australia.

“Uncapped work rights is being misused by agents in many parts of the world who are flogging our precious student visa as some kind of cheap, low rent work visa. No one should permit that to continue”, Hill claimed.

“We know that the incentive of a permanent visa to Australia is like a golden ticket from Willy Wonka’s chocolate bar”.

“It’s too powerful an incentive that would drive and pervert behaviour by providers, and some students”, Hill concluded.

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These comments followed the Albanese Government’s announcements at September’s Jobs & Skills Summit that its would uncap the amount of hours that overseas students can work while studying for an additional year, as well as extending post-study work rights by a further two years.

Deloitte’s latest economic briefing explains that these changes have ushered an explosion in student visa applications, especially from poorer nations, which will drive Australia’s net overseas migration to unprecedented highs in 2023.

“It is possible that net overseas migration has already moved to a record high”, Deloitte notes.

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“One of the key drivers for this sharp population rebound is the return of international students”.

Net overseas migration

“TEQSA (Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency), the regulator for tertiary education in Australia, made an announcement in October 2022 that international students will need to return to in person learning by the second semester of 2023”.

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“This highlights the potential for strong net migration numbers to continue through the remainder of 2023, with chart 2 showing that student visa lodgements from some markets already increased in 2022”, Deloitte says.

Student visa lodgements

“The temporary relaxation of working restrictions for student visa holders in 2022, and some recent permanent changes have attracted many students from lower income nations”.

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“Visa applications from Nepalese students grew 149% from 2021 to 2022, and are 60% above their levels in 2019”.

“These students are attracted to Australia by the combination of education and access to the high wages of the Australian labour market”, Deloitte notes.

The latest monthly visa data to February shows that net student visa arrivals have soared to unprecedented levels:

Net visa arrivals
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The Albanese Government has since announced that it will reintroduce the work cap on overseas students from Semester 2.

However, this cap will be 24 hours a week, up from 20 hours previously in a effort to make Australia more attractive to prospective students.

Therefore, Australia’s student visa system will continue to be used as a backdoor low-skilled work visa.

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Sadly, Labor has gone for quantity over quality with regards to international students, and has ensured that rental shortages will worsen and wage growth will slow.

It is an inequality disaster for younger Australians who will face increasing competition for jobs and rental accommodation.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.