It appears an increasing likelihood that the US consumer was shocked to a stop by the recent banking crisis. Barclays follows Citi.
Spending growth in our credit card high frequency series has dipped below zero, after a sharp downturn in the past month. Given that our cards spend has historically been correlated to official retail sales aggregates, if the decline is sustained it could preview future weakness.
The weakness is striking given the simultaneous rise of concerns about financial system stability. We believe the sharp deceleration in spend growth since the start of February is especially notable in the context of headlines about potential stress in the financial system, which began in a similar timeframe.
