Albert Edwards: “That is the stuff of recession”

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The always good value Albert Edwards of Societe General.


A key driver of the economic cycle is the durable goods cycle, with bust inevitably following boom. On most accounts US durable goods orders have boomed over the last couple of years and remain robust. But this is perhaps an illusion; adjusting for the rapid inflation of capital goods, the bust may have arrived already.

 Most people have an early morning ritual. The first thing I do each weekday morning is check the BBC website and look at all the UK daily newspaper front pages, especially the tabloid headlines which I would not otherwise see, and which usually make me chuckle. Then it’s down to business as I settle back in bed with my cup of tea to read two important daily emails that will have just popped into my inbox. The FT’s Robert Armstrong’s Unhedged and Bloomberg’s John Authers’ Points of Return are both must reads from two of the most experienced financial journalists I know, and they get my investment brain whirring from 7am.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.