When is the next bull market?

Sunday 26 February 2023

When is the next bull market? Not yet. Michael Hartnett at BofA.

The Price is Right: 1-year anniversary of Russia/Ukraine/NATO war (with no side thus far showing much interest in peace); war = inflationary de-globalization theme = higher rates; theme “winners ”past year energy 29% (XLE), manufacturing re-shoring 21%(AIRR), defence/aerospace 14% (PPA), natural resources 14% (IGE),“losers”Bitcoin-39%,innovation-34% (ARKK), bonds-23% (TLT), oil dependency-19% (Taiwan/Korea).

Tale of the Tape: 2-year anniversary of secular peak in China tech, 1st“QE bubble”to pop (HSTECH was 11k, now 4k, in classic post-bubble trading range–Chart 3); note biggest 5% wage hike at Honda 30-years as BoJ emergency buying bonds to maintain failed YCC regime…humiliating end to QE-era; meanwhile Tesla prioritizing battery-cell production in US not Germany due to protectionist tax breaks in Biden Inflation Reduction Act; war, protectionism, de-globalization…higher inflation, higher rates.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.