TD Securities with the hawkish call. All I will say is that job reports are a craps shoot.
RBA Call Change: 4.35% Terminal
We now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate 25bps at its next three meetings with a final 25bps hike in August, taking the terminal cash rate to 4.35%. Our prior 3.85%terminal rate call assumed 25bps hikes in March and May. The uptick in NAB’s Business Survey for January, ABS data released yesterday showing strong consumer spending, and the high probability tomorrow’s Australian employment report beats consensus are key drivers for expecting the string of hikes through to May. We discuss the domestic and offshore factors that keep RBA hikes in play after May. The RBA hiking in July, earlier than our August forecast, cannot be ruled out, especially if the Fair Work Commission’s Annual decision on wages is linked again to CPI.
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