Gas cartel villains eat crow on monster Origin bid

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The treasonous AFR is horrified:

Strangely enough, the prevailing response among investors to news that the $18.2 billion bid for Origin Energy by Canadian giant Brookfield and US private equity firm EIG has been lowered from $9 a share to $8.90 is likely to be one of relief.

While no shareholder likes to see a bid premium eroded, Origin investors were braced for a much bigger cut than this.

…Indeed, it could be argued that the token cut in the bid price could be read as a big international gas players shrugging off concerns about government intervention in the gas market.

In short, all of that fear-mongering by the cartel and its groveling media mates has done nothing to dent what is simply a monster bid for one of Australia’s most gas-exposed gentailers.

Why?

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Because the facts of the matter are these:

  • The gas cartel prints money for gas sold above $5Gj. For ORG it is $3.50Gj.
  • The worst-case scenario for Aussie domestic reservation is 15% of volumes currently exported. That still leaves the carteliers with 85% of volumes currently exported at huge margins.
  • All Australian-sold gas will still make “reasonable” returns.

To wit, one the worst offenders:

Santos has lifted its final dividend almost 80 per cent after benchmark full-year profit and free cash flow for the full year more than doubled thanks to soaring commodity prices amid a global crunch in energy.

Core profit excluding one-off items, the figure most closely watched by the market, jumped 160 per cent to $US2.46 billon ($3.6 billion) in the year ended December 31, modestly undershooting market expectations.

That security of supply for Australia for its own gas (and therefore everybody else) was turned into hysterical propaganda by the cartel, its lobby, and the AFR is a story of extraordinary greed and villainy directed at every Australian east of WA, especially the most vulnerable.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.