Last night’s release of the private ADP payroll figure, which zoomed past expectations at 245K jobs in December versus just 140K, has put tonight’s official non-farm payrolls, AKA NFP, aka US unemployment print squarely into the risk picture. The US Dept of Labor just released its unemployment claims for last week, at 204K, down from 223K previously which is well below what was expected by the market.
Does a stronger US jobs market have broader implications going into 2023? First a quick look at the data:
From IG: