Another note from Goldman trying to paint a more positive picture but all it does is illustrate how deep is the Chinese property hole and how inadequate, so far, are measures to rescue it. Support for “quality” developers is meaning less when there are few. Support first buyers likewise. Plus property investors held in check. Not to mention the overhang of stock and counterparty risk.
It is my view that this sector will never recover the levels seen in the last cycle. And likely get nowhere near doing so. This is a structural headwind for iron ore and coking coal.
We believe the government has set a firm pro-property policy tone at the beginning of 2023, soliciting dedicated endeavors in multiple aspects and from various players.
