Holiday tourism and travel data during the Lunar New Year (LNY)golden week pointed to a solid recovery in the hospitality sector (albeit fromdepressed levels), adding conviction to ourrecent upgradesto China’s 2023 GDPgrowth forecasts. The strength in travel recovery mainly came from short-distanceself-driving, while long-distance public transportation appears still far frompre-pandemic levels. Strength of economic recovery in other sectors appears still too early to tell, as traffic congestion and subway ridership data were mixed, newhome sales still showed double-digit contraction, while coal consumption by majorpower plants remained above pre-pandemic levels. The less “staying local” patternduring the LNY holiday this year increased seasonal demand for cash, and accordingly, the PBOC had injected more liquidity prior to the holiday than in 2021-22.
Let’s take a drive:
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
