Australian dollar bull run continues as technicals firm

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DXY has stopped falling for now:

AUD is now outpacing even EUR and JPY:

Commodities are the stuff of nightmares for central banks. If the soft landing transpires then oil will have bottomed at $80 and base metals at double “normal” cyclical lows. This is structural inflation in the making:

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Miners are stalled for now:

EM is pouring it on:

Chasing junk:

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But the US rate easing has paused:

Even as stocks price above trends:

AUD technicals are still strong. Credit Suisse:

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AUDUSD has rebounded strongly from the recent breakout point at .6894/71

AUDUSD has rebounded strongly from the recent breakout point at .6894/71 as expected and with short-and medium-term momentum still rising and this key breakout holding, we stick with our bullish bias and look for further gains. Short-term resistance moves to the recent high at.7063, with more important resistance at an important cluster of retracement levels seen not far above at .7089/7138. A closing break above here would reinforce our bullish outlook further and open up the next key cluster of levels at .7284/7306. Only a stable close below the 200-day average at .6817wouldspeak in favor of a more neutral and choppy trading environment, with next support below seen at the 55-day average at .6768 and then at .6721. The Credit Suisse House View is neutral on AUDUSD on a 3-6month horizon. We stay bullish after support at .6894/74 held and look for a break above .7089/7138 next.

Looks well overbought to me but it’s not going to reverse unless or until the soft-landing thesis is challenged.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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