CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which measures price changes across Australia’s five major capital cities, fell another 0.27% in the week ended 19 January. This was the 37th consecutive weekly decline:
The decline was broad-based, with all major capitals recording value losses:
So far in January, dwelling values have fallen 0.68% at the 5-city aggregate level, with Sydney (-0.82%), Melbourne (-0.66%) and Brisbane (-0.80) driving the decline:
Over the most recent quarter, dwelling values have fallen 3.3% at the 5-city aggregate level, again driven by Sydney (-4.0%), Melbourne (-2.8%) and Brisbane (-4.7%):
Finally, dwelling values have fallen 9.5% from their peak at the 5-city aggregate level, with double-digit declines recorded across Sydney (-13.5%) and Brisbane (-10.2%), and Melbourne (-8.9%) not far behind. By contrast, Adelaide (-1.8%) and Perth (-0.8%) have recorded only minor price falls:
In his latest Macro Investment Outlook, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver predicts Australian dwelling values will fall another 9% or so before lifting late this year after the Reserve Bank begins cutting rates:
Australian home prices are likely to fall another 9% or so as rate hikes continue to impact, resulting in a top to bottom fall of 15-20%, but with prices expected to bottom around September, ahead of gains late in the year as the RBA moves toward rate cuts.
However, Shane Oliver has also advised pundits to watch for “a sharper than expected [house price] fall as fixed rates reset and unemployment rises” since this “could cause financial stability issues”.
