Goldman has a crack:
Our central economic forecasts are for China growth to accelerate materially in the second half of next year on the back of a full reopening in the second quarter. While there are likely to be uncertainties over the timing and extent of China’s reopening, we think it is useful to benchmark the potential impact of a full reopening across assets.
Our analysis suggests that Chinese and EM equities and commodities are among the biggest beneficiaries. Our results also predict broad USD weakness (particularly against commodity and North Asian currencies), and some upward pressure on DM yields and curve flattening. These results also suggest a shift in the correlation patterns between yields, equities, and FX that we have seen in the last year.
