Another research house joins the ex-growth club. Societe Generale.
Focus – End of China’s growth story?
Based on the latest developments, we are more certain now that China will exit its zero-COVID policy sometime in 2023. A major virus wave will likely be hard to avoid right after the shift, but economic growth should be robust thereafter for several quarters thanks to pent-up consumer demand and improving confidence. However, we would not expect the consumption recovery to be as strong as that seen in the West in 2021 due to the lack of fiscal support to households throughout the pandemic.
