Retail recession tipped for 2023

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The latest Deloitte Access Economics’ Retail Forecasts have been released, which tips a “short and shallow retail recession” in 2023, with sales volumes expected to decrease by 0.2% and 0.4% over the March and June quarters of 2023.

Deloitte retail sales forecasts

The contraction in retail sales will be driven by “cost of living pressures and a mortgage rate squeeze”, with 58% of respondents expecting consumer confidence to deteriorate through 2023.

Commenting on the forecasts, Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens noted that “the domestic and global economic environment is souring as retailers face strong headwinds. Rising inflation and interest rates are increasing cost of living pressures, causing consumer confidence to plummet”.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.