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KPMG Australia’s chief economist Brendan Rynne says economic conditions are going to feel “tighter and tighter” in 2023 as the year progresses. However, he expects the domestic economy to “muddle through” the calendar year without going into recession, and the downturn will be a “vanilla” one.
“In the muddle-through scenario, wages don’t get blown out, rates don’t ratchet up too high, we draw savings to keep consumption positive, and investment still occurs”, Rynne said.
“So it’s just a vanilla slowdown, not a collapse. It’s not as high as a 90% probability, but that’s our central case”.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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